Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which film will win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars ceremony. A 'Yes' on any listed film means that specific film walks away with the top prize at the 99th Academy Awards on March 14, 2027. A 'No' means it either lost, or was never nominated in the first place. Right now, the market treats Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' as the front-runner, with 'Dune: Part Three' and 'Wild Horse Nine' trailing behind. The market settles based on whichever listed film is officially announced as Best Picture winner at the live ceremony on March 14, 2027. The source of truth is AMPAS, the Academy itself, confirmed via their official channels or the broadcast. One important edge case: if a listed film does not receive a nomination when nominees are announced on January 21, 2027, it immediately resolves to No, before the ceremony even happens. In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, alphabetical order decides. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2027 Oscars or any of the listed films. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be major film festival buzz, early awards-season wins like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards, or critical reception as these films release closer to the eligibility window. This market is genuinely hard to call because most of these films are still months away from release, and Oscar outcomes depend on factors that do not exist yet: how critics respond, how audiences feel, and which film builds awards-season momentum through festivals and precursor awards. The market prices 'The Odyssey' at 50%, reflecting early enthusiasm, but history shows early favorites often fade. There is also an entire field of films not yet listed that could emerge as strong contenders before nominations are even announced.

The odds right now

• The Odyssey50%
• Dune: Part Three17%
• Wild Horse Nine10%
• Fjord6%
• Project Hail Mary5%
• The Adventures of Cliff Booth5%
• Digger4%
• Clarissa4%
• Josephine4%
• Behemoth!4%
• Saturn Return4%
• Tony4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves March 14, 2027

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.