Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election, the vote to choose the next mayor of Canada's capital city. A win for Mark Sutcliffe means the current mayor keeps his job. A win for Jeff Leiper, Alex Lawson, or someone else entirely means a new person takes over as mayor. The roughly 40% of odds not assigned to any named candidate reflects the real possibility that someone not yet listed could win. The market settles on whoever wins the October 26, 2026 Ottawa mayoral election and is confirmed as the next mayor. The result will be determined by credible news reporting, with official city results as the backup source if anything is disputed. One important note: any interim or temporary mayor appointed before the vote does not count. If, for any unusual reason, the outcome still isn't known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than waiting indefinitely. None of the provided news headlines relate to Ottawa, its mayoral race, or Canadian municipal politics in any way. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be new candidates entering the race, polling results from Ottawa, major local policy controversies, or changes to who is running. This election is still over a year away, which is the biggest source of uncertainty. The candidate field is not yet settled, and campaigns have barely begun. Mark Sutcliffe holds the highest odds as the incumbent, but incumbency is not a guarantee, and the combined odds on all other candidates outweigh his. Local issues, candidate performance, and voter turnout can all shift things significantly. Much of what will decide this race simply has not happened yet.

The odds right now

• Mark Sutcliffe-38.0 pts (1w)41%
• Neil Saravanamuttoo+20.2 pts (1w)24%
• Catherine McKenney+14.6 pts (1w)17%
• Jeff Leiper-0.5 pts (1w)17%
• Alex Lawson+3.8 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 26, 2026

The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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