Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much rain will fall in Hong Kong across the entire month of July 2026, measured in millimeters. A 'Yes' for the top bracket means total rainfall adds up to 600mm or more, which is a very large amount: for context, 600mm in one month is roughly as much rain as London gets in an entire year. Lower brackets represent progressively drier outcomes for the month. The Hong Kong Observatory settles this market by publishing its official 'Total Rainfall (mm)' figure for every day in July 2026 on its climate data page. The final number, measured to one decimal place, determines which bracket wins. One edge case worth knowing: if the total lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the rules assign it to the higher bracket. If the Observatory's data is unavailable by October 7, 2026, the organizers will find another credible source. None of the recent news provided is relevant to Hong Kong rainfall or weather in July 2026. The headlines cover oil company stock targets, Malaysian politics, and a Chinese travel company fine. If you want to track this market, the developments that would actually matter are typhoon forecasts for the South China Sea and seasonal monsoon outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory. July is deep inside Hong Kong's monsoon season, so heavy rain is genuinely normal, which explains why the market prices the 600mm-plus outcome at 78%. The real uncertainty is how extreme the month turns out to be: a single slow-moving typhoon or a persistent monsoon trough can push totals well past 600mm, while a quieter spell can keep them below. Weather at this range, over a full month, more than a year away, is impossible to forecast with precision. Typhoon tracks are especially unpredictable.

The odds right now

• 600mm++81.5 pts (1w)90%
• 575-600mm+2.0 pts (1w)6%
• 550-575mm-5.8 pts (1w)5%
• 525-550mm-18.5 pts (1w)5%
• 500-525mm-21.2 pts (1w)3%
• 400-425mm-3.9 pts (1w)0%
• 475-500mm-18.4 pts (1w)0%
• <400mm-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 425-450mm-27.1 pts (1w)0%
• 450-475mm-38.6 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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