Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which political party will finish in second place in Russia's next parliamentary election, scheduled for September 2026. First place is almost certainly going to United Russia, the ruling party, so this is really a contest for the runner-up spot among the opposition-style parties. The Communist Party (KPRF) is the current frontrunner for that second-place position, ahead of New People and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR). The market settles on whichever listed party wins the second highest number of seats in the Russian State Duma election. Seats are the main measurement, not vote share. If two parties tie on seats, total votes break the tie, and if they are still tied, alphabetical order of abbreviations decides it. Official results come from Russia's Central Election Commission. If results are not clearly confirmed by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other' instead of any named party. None of the provided news headlines relate to Russian parliamentary politics or the 2026 election. No relevant recent news was supplied for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be any changes to party registration rules, shifts in Kremlin policy toward specific parties, or polling data from Russian sources ahead of the election. The biggest single source of uncertainty here is that Russian elections do not work like open competitive elections. The Kremlin has significant influence over which parties are allowed to run, how votes are counted, and what results are officially reported. The market itself notes it will rely on official Russian government sources if there is ambiguity. That means the outcome depends not just on voter preferences but on decisions made inside Russian institutions, which are hard for outside observers to track or predict.

The odds right now

• Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+5.5 pts (1w)74%
• New People (NL)-4.0 pts (1w)12%
• Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-9.3 pts (1w)5%
• United Russia (ER)2%
• A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)+0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Rodina+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Civic Platform (GP)-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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