SD-AL House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which party will win South Dakota's single U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. South Dakota is an "at-large" state, meaning the whole state is one congressional district, so one candidate wins one seat representing the entire state. A Yes on Republican means a Republican wins that seat; a Yes on Democrat means a Democrat wins it. The market currently prices a Republican win at 92% and a Democratic win at 4%. The market settles based on who wins the South Dakota at-large House race on November 3, 2026. The winner's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate runs without a clear party label, their most recently stated intent to caucus with one party decides it. The result is confirmed by a consensus of credible news reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results as the final authority if any dispute arises. None of the provided headlines relate directly to this race. There is no recent news specifically about the South Dakota House contest to point to. The kind of developments worth watching would be candidate announcements, primary results, or fundraising reports specific to this race. The market is heavily one-sided at 92%, so there is no real balance to describe here. South Dakota is a deeply Republican-leaning state that has sent Republicans to the House for decades, which explains the lopsided odds. The main genuine uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that pattern: a particularly strong Democratic candidate, a damaging Republican primary, or a major national event shifting the political environment before November 2026.

The odds right now

• Republican Party-2.0 pts (1w)92%
• Democratic Party+1.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.