Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Chinese AI company will rank second-best on a specific public AI leaderboard by the end of September 2026. The leaderboard, hosted at arena.ai, ranks AI labs based on how real users rate their chatbots in head-to-head conversations. So the question is really: among all the major Chinese AI companies, who will be sitting in the number-two spot on that scoreboard on a specific date? On September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone will open the arena.ai leaderboard, filter it by 'Labs' with style control off, and look at which Chinese company holds the second-highest Lab Rank. That company wins. If two companies are tied, the tiebreaker goes first to their Arena score, then to alphabetical order. One edge case worth knowing: if the arena.ai site is down that day, the check is delayed until it comes back online. If the site shuts down permanently, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. The headlines are about Malaysian politics, energy deals, and Southeast Asian affairs, which have no bearing on Chinese AI company rankings. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes new model releases from companies like Moonshot, Alibaba, or StepFun, or any major shifts in how those companies are scoring on the arena.ai leaderboard. Over a year remains before the deadline, and the Chinese AI space moves fast. The market currently places Moonshot at 74% for second place, but that reflects today's snapshot, not a locked-in future. Any Chinese company could release a stronger model that reshuffles the rankings. The leaderboard itself is driven by ongoing user votes, so scores shift continuously. There is also the question of who currently holds first place among Chinese companies, since second place is always defined relative to whoever is ahead of them.

The odds right now

• Moonshot+20.5 pts (1w)59%
• Alibaba-16.0 pts (1w)14%
• StepFun-15.6 pts (1w)11%
• DeepSeek-22.2 pts (1w)10%
• Z.ai-25.0 pts (1w)9%
• Baidu-17.5 pts (1w)9%
• MiniMax-25.3 pts (1w)7%
• Tencent-23.0 pts (1w)4%
• Xiaomi-29.0 pts (1w)3%
• Meituan-7.4 pts (1w)2%
• ByteDance-28.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.