"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money the new Spider-Man movie makes on its opening day in North America, specifically July 31, 2026. The number being measured includes any Thursday night preview screenings, which are counted as part of that first day's total. The brackets give you ranges to pick from: under $136 million, $136-144 million, $144-152 million, or $152 million and above. You are essentially guessing which revenue bucket the film lands in on day one. The market settles based on the final domestic box office figure reported for July 31 on The Numbers website. The key word is 'final': studio estimates come out first, but official numbers are confirmed a few days later, and only those confirmed figures count. If a number falls exactly on the border of two brackets, it goes to the higher one. If The Numbers data isn't finalized by August 7, 2026, another trusted source will be used instead. None of the provided news headlines relate to this movie or its box office prospects. There is no recent relevant news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be: official ticket pre-sale numbers, early audience tracking reports, critic reviews, and any announcements about competing films opening the same weekend. Opening day box office is genuinely hard to forecast even for industry professionals. Tracking data shifts constantly in the weeks before release, word-of-mouth from early screenings can swing numbers significantly, and competing films on the same weekend matter a lot. The market here is fairly spread across three adjacent brackets, which reflects real disagreement. The film has not opened yet, so all estimates are projections, and a gap of just a few million dollars separates each bracket.

The odds right now

• <120m33%
• 144-152m26%
• 152m+21%
• 128-136m16%
• 136-144m14%
• 120-128m10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Daily Box Office will gross domestically on July 31. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for July 31 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.