"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Even Higher Strikes): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how big Spider-Man: Brand New Day's opening weekend will be at the domestic box office. Specifically, it is asking whether the film earns between $350 million and $360 million, between $360 million and $370 million, or less than $350 million during its first three days in theaters (July 31 through August 2, 2026). The market currently puts the most weight on the $350-360 million range, followed by $360-370 million, with only a small chance of falling below $350 million. The market settles based on the final domestic opening weekend gross reported by The Numbers website, covering the three-day period of July 31 through August 2, 2026. Importantly, these must be final figures, not the studio's early estimates, which are often released before the weekend ends. If the number lands exactly on a border between two ranges, it counts toward the higher range. If The Numbers and Box Office Mojo show conflicting or unconfirmed data, the market stays open until both agree, with a hard deadline of August 9, 2026. One of the provided headlines mentions a roundup of returning MCU characters in Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which tells us the film is real and generating coverage as it approaches release, but it does not tell us anything about early ticket sales, advance bookings, or audience reception. The other headlines are completely unrelated to this market. There is no meaningful box office data in the provided news to point to. The film has not yet opened, so the actual number is genuinely unknown. The market is split mainly between two adjacent ranges, $350-360 million and $360-370 million, with most probability sitting in a fairly narrow band. The real unpredictability is what happens at the last moment: opening weekend grosses are sensitive to critic reviews, word of mouth in the first 24 hours, competition, weather, and how Thursday preview numbers trend. A strong or weak early signal can shift the final total by tens of millions quickly, making the gap between these two ranges hard to call in advance.

The odds right now

• 350-360m78%
• 360-370m20%
• <350m2%
• 370-380m1%
• 380-390m0%
• 390-400m0%
• 400-410m0%
• 410-420m0%
• 420m+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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