"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn in US cinemas during its first weekend. Specifically, it covers Friday July 31 through Sunday August 2, 2026, including any Thursday night preview screenings counted in that total. The brackets represent ranges of millions of dollars, so you are essentially picking which revenue range the film lands in, from under $280 million to $310-320 million and beyond. The market settles based on the final 3-day opening weekend domestic gross published on The Numbers website. Crucially, it must be the confirmed final number, not an early studio estimate. If a result falls exactly on the border between two brackets, the rules round up to the higher bracket. If the data is unclear or disputed, Box Office Mojo is used as a second check. Everything must be confirmed by August 9, 2026. None of the provided news headlines relate to Spider-Man: Brand New Day. There is no relevant recent information here to draw from. The kinds of updates worth watching for would be early tracking forecasts from box office analysts, any changes to competing films opening the same weekend, and audience reception signals like social media buzz or advance ticket sales. The market is genuinely split across three brackets, each receiving roughly equal probability, which signals real uncertainty. Superhero films can swing wildly based on audience word-of-mouth in the days before opening, competing releases, and how strong Thursday preview numbers are. Spider-Man films have historically had enormous range. There is also a structural wrinkle: the tie-breaking rule rounds borderline figures up, which means the exact bracket that resolves this could hinge on a few million dollars.

The odds right now

• <280m22%
• 320-330m20%
• 310-320m18%
• 280-290m17%
• 290-300m13%
• 300-310m11%
• 330-340m8%
• 350m+8%
• 340-350m5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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