"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' will earn at North American movie theaters in just its first month of release. The film opens July 31, 2026, and the question closes August 31, so it covers roughly the opening weekend plus the first few weeks of theater runs. 'Domestic gross' means ticket sales inside the United States (and possibly Canada, depending on how the data source counts it). The three most popular brackets right now are $600-700 million, $700-800 million, and $500-600 million. The market settles using official daily box office data from The Numbers website, covering every day from July 31 through August 31, 2026. Once those numbers are finalized (meaning studios have confirmed them, not just estimated them), the bracket that contains the actual total wins. One small but important rule: if the total lands exactly on a boundary, say exactly $600 million, it resolves to the higher bracket, so $600-700 million in that example. If the data is not confirmed by September 30, 2026, another trusted source will be used instead. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes early tracking forecasts from entertainment analysts, casting or release date announcements, trailer reception, or any reports about competition from other films opening nearby in late July or early August 2026. The film has not been released yet, so almost everything is still unknown. First-month box office depends on opening-weekend momentum, audience word of mouth, critic reviews, competition from other summer films, and broader factors like school calendars and economic mood. Spider-Man films have a wide historical range, from moderate hits to all-time records. The market is spread fairly evenly across three brackets spanning $500-800 million, which reflects genuine disagreement, not a clear consensus. That $300 million spread shows just how uncertain the outcome still is.

The odds right now

• 700 - 800m30%
• 600 - 700m27%
• 500 - 600m23%
• 900m+9%
• 400 - 500m7%
• 800 - 900m7%
• <400m1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.