US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US will actually cancel or suspend the financial penalties it placed on Turkey's defense procurement agency back in 2020. The penalties, called CAATSA sanctions, were the US response to Turkey buying a Russian missile defense system called the S-400. A Yes means the US formally lifts those penalties before a given date. A No means the sanctions remain in place, even if politicians have talked about removing them. The market resolves Yes the moment the US government issues an official document, such as a waiver, license, or revocation order, that formally removes or suspends any part of the CAATSA penalties on Turkey or its defense agency. A temporary suspension counts. A partial lift counts. What does NOT count is a speech, tweet, or announcement saying sanctions might be lifted soon. Words without a signed official action will not resolve this Yes. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the specified date for each outcome. The most significant recent development provided is from July 7, 2026, when President Trump publicly stated his intent to lift the sanctions. That statement is the reason this market is now priced near 50%. However, the resolution criteria are explicit: a statement of intent alone does not qualify. No news of a formal action has been provided. The other recent headlines in the news feed are unrelated to this topic. The core tension is the gap between political intent and official action. Trump has signaled he wants to lift the sanctions, which is why the market is nearly split, but translating that into a signed government order involves legal steps, interagency processes, and congressional sensitivities. Timing is genuinely unclear: markets price the July 31 outcome at only 5%, suggesting most participants expect it to take longer. Diplomatic factors, including Turkey's relationship with Russia and NATO dynamics, could speed things up or create new obstacles at any point.

The odds right now

• October 31+1.5 pts (1w)47%
• December 31-32.5 pts (1w)47%
• July 31-0.5 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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