USD x Iranian rials End of July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how weak the Iranian rial will be against the US dollar by the end of July 2026, specifically, will one US dollar buy more than 1.9 million rials on the open (black) market? Iran's official exchange rate is heavily controlled, so this tracks the real street price that ordinary Iranians actually use. A 'Yes' on the top bracket means the rial has fallen to historic lows; lower brackets mean it held up somewhat better. The market settles based on the free-market USD rate published by Bonbast, a widely watched website that tracks Iran's unofficial exchange rate, on July 31, 2026. One important technical detail: Bonbast publishes prices in Iranian toman, and 1 toman equals 10 rials, so the brackets here are already converted into rials. The figure is considered final once August 1st's rate is posted. If Bonbast goes offline, the market creators will choose an alternative source. The news provided is significant: as of mid-July 2026, the US has been conducting airstrikes on Iran for eight consecutive nights following the killing of two American soldiers in a reported Iranian attack in Jordan. Active US military strikes on Iranian territory are a major escalation that would typically put severe downward pressure on the rial, as geopolitical crisis tends to accelerate currency flight and weaken confidence in the Iranian economy. The biggest unknown is how quickly and severely the ongoing US-Iran military conflict affects the rial before July 31. Currency crises can move fast, but they can also pause, a ceasefire, diplomatic signals, or even just market exhaustion could stabilize the rate temporarily. The rial has already been under extreme pressure for years, so it may be close to a floor. The market prices the top bracket at 82%, meaning it strongly leans one way, but the remaining 18% reflects real uncertainty about just how far things move in the next two weeks.

The odds right now

• 1.9M++56.5 pts (1w)81%
• 1.8-1.9M-19.3 pts (1w)13%
• 1.7-1.8M-24.0 pts (1w)6%
• 1.4-1.5M-0.8 pts (1w)0%
• 1.6-1.7M-13.9 pts (1w)0%
• <1.4M-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 1.5-1.6M-2.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for July 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.