What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which specific movie will sit in the number two spot on Netflix's official global English-language movie chart for a given week. A yes for 'A Toxic Love Story' means that film finishes second in total global views among English-language movies. A yes for '72 Hours' means that film does instead. The #2 position matters here, not #1, so even a very popular film can win this if a slightly bigger one beats it to the top. The market settles based on the Netflix Top 10 update posted at top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Whatever movie Netflix officially lists as the second most-watched English-language film globally for that week wins. If two films tie in the chart ranking, the one that comes first alphabetically gets the spot. One important edge case: if Netflix does not publish this update by August 7, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other' regardless of any other information. None of the provided news headlines relate to Netflix, streaming viewership, or the films in this market. There is no recent news here to draw on. The kind of development that would matter is any Netflix announcement about new releases, viewership figures, or chart updates for the relevant week. The market prices 'A Toxic Love Story' at 98%, so the crowd is very strongly aligned on one outcome. At that level, the honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens, such as a surprise hit pulling views away, a data quirk in how Netflix counts, or the chart update not arriving on time and triggering the 'Other' resolution. This is not a close call in the market's current view, but unexpected shifts in streaming do occasionally happen.

The odds right now

• A Toxic Love Story100%
• 72 Hours0%
• Furious 70%
• A Quiet Place: Day One0%
• Voicemails for Isabelle0%
• Ordinary Angels0%
• Sniper: No Nation0%
• Minions0%
• KPop Demon Hunters0%
• Elize: Shadows of a Woman0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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