What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which specific movie will sit in the second spot on Netflix's official US Top 10 movies list when it updates on August 4, 2026. A win for 'A Toxic Love Story' means that film finishes just below the number one movie in total US views for that week. A win for any other option means a different film edges it out for that second-place slot. Netflix publishes its official Top 10 list at top10.netflix.com every Tuesday, and the August 4 update decides this market. Whatever film Netflix ranks as number two in the US by total weekly views wins. If two films tie in ranking, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by title. There is one important edge case: if Netflix does not publish the update by August 7 at midnight, the market settles as 'Other', regardless of what any film actually earned. None of the provided news headlines relate to Netflix, streaming viewership, or any of the films listed in this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is a new Netflix release or a major cultural moment that drives sudden viewership toward a competing title in the days before the list updates. The market is priced at 99% for 'A Toxic Love Story', which means the crowd is treating this as nearly settled. At that level, the honest question is not whether two sides are balanced, it is simply whether something unexpected happens before the list locks in. A surprise hit, a viral moment for another film, or a data quirk could still shift the rankings. The main remaining uncertainty is the small but real chance that something unforeseen disrupts the expected outcome.

The odds right now

• A Toxic Love Story99%
• 72 Hours1%
• Elize: Shadows of a Woman0%
• Ordinary Angels0%
• Sniper: No Nation0%
• Minions0%
• A Quiet Place: Day One0%
• Voicemails for Isabelle0%
• Furious 70%
• KPop Demon Hunters0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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