What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which TV show will land in the second spot on Netflix's official US Top 10 list for a specific week. A 'Yes' for any listed show means that show finished with the second-highest viewership among all US Netflix TV shows that week. It is not about overall quality or buzz, just raw viewing numbers as counted and published by Netflix itself. The market settles based on the Netflix Top 10 update published at top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, around 3:00 PM ET, covering viewing from the Monday-to-Sunday week before it. Whatever show Netflix places at position number two wins. If two shows tie in ranking, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by title. One important edge case: if Netflix does not publish that update by August 7, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other' regardless of what any show was doing in the charts. None of the news headlines provided are relevant to Netflix viewership or the shows listed in this market. There is no recent reporting here about Ransom Canyon Season 2, The Bombing of Pan Am 103, or The Idaho Murders to draw from. The kind of news that would matter is anything about a major new Netflix release that could push these shows down the chart, or viewing data signals from Netflix itself. At 98%, the market is heavily one-sided toward Ransom Canyon Season 2, so this is not really a two-horse race. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens, such as a surprise hit launching the same week and stealing the number two spot, or a data quirk in how Netflix counts views. The market is not treating this as genuinely competitive. The small remaining probability mostly reflects that upsets, while rare, are never impossible in weekly entertainment charts.

The odds right now

• Ransom Canyon: Season 298%
• The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare1%
• The Bombing of Pan Am 103: Limited Series1%
• The Hawk: Season 11%
• I Will Find You: Limited Series0%
• Little House on the Prairie: Season 10%
• Elite Force: Season 10%
• My Daughter's Father: Season 10%
• The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
• Hannibal: Season 10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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