What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which one movie will sit at the very top of Netflix's US chart for the week ending July 27, 2026? The two options are '72 Hours', a comedy starring Kevin Hart, and 'A Toxic Love Story'. Whoever gets the most views from American Netflix users during that week wins the top spot. A Yes for '72 Hours' means it beat everything else on the platform that week, and a Yes for 'A Toxic Love Story' means it did. The answer comes from Netflix's own official Top 10 website, top10.netflix.com, which updates every Tuesday. The update expected on July 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM Eastern Time will show which movie ranked number one based on US views from Monday to Sunday of the previous week. That ranking decides the outcome. One important edge case: if Netflix does not publish that update by July 31, 2026, the market settles as 'Other', meaning neither listed movie wins. Two reviews of '72 Hours' were published on July 24, 2026, and both are notably negative, calling it forgettable and saying Kevin Hart drags the film down. Critical reception does not always predict viewership, but negative buzz can slow word-of-mouth. The other news items in the feed appear unrelated to either movie. No relevant news about 'A Toxic Love Story' was provided. The market currently prices '72 Hours' as a strong favorite at 74%, but Netflix viewership can shift quickly. New releases, social media moments, or algorithm-driven recommendations can push a title unexpectedly. The negative reviews for '72 Hours' add some doubt, though bad reviews sometimes barely dent Netflix numbers. We also have no recent data on how 'A Toxic Love Story' is performing. The core uncertainty is simply whether the early momentum behind '72 Hours' holds through the full viewing week.

The odds right now

• 72 Hours73%
• A Toxic Love Story27%
• Wicked: For Good0%
• Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea0%
• Desire0%
• The Body in the Locker0%
• Voicemails for Isabelle0%
• The Boss Baby0%
• Scream0%
• KPop Demon Hunters0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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