What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which Netflix TV show will Americans watch the most in a specific week, and will it be 'The Hawk: Season 1' or 'Ransom Canyon: Season 2'? A Yes for The Hawk means it tops the official Netflix chart for that week. The same logic applies to Ransom Canyon. There is also a small implied chance that some other show entirely takes the number one spot, which is why the two main options together add up to less than 100%. The market settles based on Netflix's own official Top 10 list, published at top10.netflix.com on Tuesday July 28, 2026 around 3 PM Eastern time. Whatever show Netflix officially ranks number one for US viewership that week wins the market. One important edge case: if Netflix does not publish that update by July 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other' regardless of what any other source says. Netflix's own data is the only thing that counts here. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Netflix, The Hawk, or Ransom Canyon. There is no relevant news to point to from what was shared. The kind of update that would matter here is a new season dropping, a major cultural moment around one of these shows, or Netflix itself sharing early viewership signals for that week. The main uncertainty is that streaming popularity can shift quickly and unpredictably. The market currently prices The Hawk at around 74%, so it is the strong favourite, but a 74% probability still means roughly one in four chances it does not top the chart. A competing show could surge unexpectedly, or Ransom Canyon could outperform. Weekly Netflix rankings are not announced in advance, so there is genuine suspense right up until Netflix publishes the list.

The odds right now

• The Hawk: Season 180%
• Ransom Canyon: Season 219%
• Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 20%
• Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 10%
• WWE: Unreal: Season 30%
• I Will Find You: Limited Series0%
• The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
• Quarterback: Season 30%
• Sesame Street Classics: Season 10%
• Little House on the Prairie: Season 10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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