What will be the top US Netflix show this week?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which TV show will sit at the number one spot on Netflix's official US popularity chart for a specific week in early August 2026. A Yes on 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' means that show had more US views than anything else on Netflix that week. A Yes on 'Ransom Canyon: Season 2' means that show topped the chart instead. The chart ranks shows by how many times people actually pressed play, not by ratings or reviews. The result is decided by Netflix's own published Top 10 list at top10.netflix.com, updated on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, around 3:00 PM Eastern time. Whatever show Netflix lists as number one for US TV viewing that week wins. One edge case worth knowing: if two shows somehow tie in views, the one that comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner. And if Netflix fails to publish the update by August 7, 2026, the market settles as 'Other' regardless of what is showing on the platform. None of the provided news headlines relate to Netflix, US streaming, or either of the shows in this market. There is no relevant recent information to draw from here. The kind of news that would matter is a new show launch, a viral cultural moment, or a major event that drives people toward one of these titles. The market is extremely lopsided, with 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' priced at 98%. That means the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts its lead, not whether the two shows are close competitors. A surprise hit launching the same week, an unusual spike in viewership for another title, or a data quirk in how Netflix counts views could shift things. But the market is treating this as close to a settled question, so the realistic uncertainty is small rather than genuinely two-sided.

The odds right now

• The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare98%
• Ransom Canyon: Season 21%
• The Hawk: Season 10%
• I Will Find You: Limited Series0%
• The Bombing of Pan Am 103: Limited Series0%
• Little House on the Prairie: Season 10%
• Elite Force: Season 10%
• My Daughter's Father: Season 10%
• The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
• Hannibal: Season 10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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