What will Elon post this week? (July 20 - July 26): how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Elon Musk will type certain words in his own posts on X during a specific week. There are three separate topics being tracked: 'Tesla' (his car company), 'China' (the country), and 'Football' (the sport). Each one is its own Yes or No question. A Yes means he typed that word himself; a No means he didn't, or only shared someone else's post that contained it. Each topic resolves Yes if the exact word appears in something Musk personally writes on his verified @elonmusk account between July 20 and July 26, 2026. Reposts and quoted posts from others do not count, only his own words. Plurals like 'Teslas' and capitalization variations count, but misspellings, slang forms, and words with symbols inserted (like T3sla) do not. The market settles based purely on what appears in his text, regardless of topic or intent. The provided news is about U.S.-Iran tensions, Houthi attacks on tankers, and a reported strike on an Amazon data center in Bahrain. None of these headlines directly involve Tesla or football, but the China angle is worth watching: escalating Middle East conflict and energy disruptions can pull Musk into geopolitical commentary where China often comes up. That said, no news here directly signals he will or won't post any of the three words. Musk posts dozens of times a day on many topics, which makes common words like 'China' and 'Football' genuinely plausible, while 'Tesla' is something he mentions very frequently. The core difficulty is that his posting is unpredictable: a single news event, a joke, or a product announcement can push him toward or away from any topic in hours. The market reflects this, pricing Tesla highest at 68%, China at 50%, and Football at 47%, meaning none of them are seen as certain either way.

The odds right now

• Never82%
• Tesla68%
• Trump50%
• China50%
• Texas48%
• Football48%
• Always46%
• ChatGPT44%
• Video game / Videogame43%
• Neuralink30%
• IPO30%
• President18%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.