What will Marco Rubio say on Fox News: My View?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which specific words Marco Rubio will say out loud during one particular TV interview. There are three separate word-based bets: whether he says 'Iran' or 'Iranian', whether he says 'Trump' at least three times, and whether he says 'nuclear'. A Yes on any bracket simply means that word or phrase was spoken during the show. A No means he never said it during that specific broadcast. Each bracket settles based on the actual audio or video of the Fox News: My View episode airing August 1 at 9:00 PM ET. Someone reviews the recording and checks whether each word was spoken. If the show is cancelled or never airs before August 2 at 11:59 PM ET, all word brackets resolve No and a special 'No Qualifying Event' bracket resolves Yes instead. Only words said during this specific interview count, not anything Rubio says elsewhere. The timing is notable: on the same day as the interview, U.S. embassies across the Middle East issued alerts about Iran tensions and urged Americans to exercise caution. Rubio, as Secretary of State, would be a natural person to discuss this. Those headlines make it easy to see why 'Iran' and 'nuclear' are priced so high. The Trump-related headlines are also from the same day, giving him plenty of reason to mention the president. The biggest uncertainty for 'Iran' is actually small: the market prices it at 98%, reflecting how central Iran policy is to Rubio's current role. The real risk is just the unexpected, such as the show being cancelled or the conversation going in a completely different direction. 'Trump 3+ times' at 76% and 'nuclear' at 72% carry more genuine doubt, since hitting an exact count or a specific word depends on how the conversation flows, which no one can fully control in advance.

The odds right now

• Iran / Iranian99%
• Trump 3+ times78%
• Nuclear72%
• Israel / Israeli69%
• Venezuela / Maduro67%
• Oil / Gas / Gasoline67%
• Democrat46%
• Ceasefire43%
• NATO36%
• JD / Vance30%
• Meme27%
• Tariff25%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

Marco Rubio is scheduled to appear on Fox News: My View on August 1 at 9:00 PM ET (https://x.com/MyViewFNC/status/2082912630755201288?s=46&t=KIQP6O7wzTwc0Obf_fs9_g). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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