What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether specific words or phrases will be spoken out loud during SpaceX's next earnings call on August 4, 2026. It is not asking about business results or stock prices. Each phrase, like 'Elon / Musk', 'Data Center', or 'Cursor', is its own separate yes-or-no question: did anyone on the call say that word or phrase, even once? That is all it takes for a 'Yes'. Each phrase resolves Yes if it is spoken by anyone during the SpaceX earnings call on August 4, 2026, starting at 4:30 PM Eastern time. The call's audio is the only source that counts. If the event is cancelled or does not air by midnight on August 5, 2026, every phrase automatically resolves No, and a special 'No Qualifying Event' option resolves Yes instead. There is no judgment about context, only whether the words were said. None of the recent news provided is related to SpaceX's earnings call or the phrases being tracked. The headlines cover tariff lawsuits, weather, and wildfires. If you want to follow what matters here, watch for any news about the SpaceX call itself, its agenda, or topics SpaceX leadership has been publicly discussing ahead of August 4. The market prices all three phrases above 90%, which means participants strongly expect these words to come up naturally in conversation. The real uncertainty is small but real: a call could be postponed, a speaker could use different wording, or a topic could simply not come up. For a phrase priced at 95%, the main question is not whether it is likely, it is whether the unlikely happens. That is a narrow but genuine risk.

The odds right now

• Elon / Musk 3+ times95%
• Data Center93%
• Cursor90%
• Grok88%
• Data Center 5+ times84%
• Starship82%
• Mars80%
• Tesla66%
• Launch 10+ times65%
• ISS / International Space Station58%
• IPO54%
• Moon 3+ times51%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of SpaceX currently scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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