What will Trump post this week? (July 20 - July 26): how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Donald Trump will use specific words in his own posts on Truth Social during one particular week. There are three separate word bets running: 'Gold/Golden' (98% odds), 'Israel' (72%), and 'Rigged' (66%). A Yes means Trump typed that word himself in an original post or reply during the week. A No means he never wrote it, even once, in that window. Each word resolves Yes if Trump's verified Truth Social account posts it between July 20 and July 26, 2026. The word just needs to appear once, in any context, including replies he writes himself. Reposts and shares do not count. Plurals and possessives count, but misspellings and creative symbol substitutions do not. The only account that matters is the verified @realDonaldTrump Truth Social account, nowhere else. None of the provided news headlines connect clearly to these specific words. That said, the kind of developments worth watching would be anything touching U.S. policy on Israel, claims about election fairness, or economic topics where Trump might reference gold or golden, since those subjects have historically prompted him to post on those themes. The 98% odds on 'Gold/Golden' suggest the market sees that word as nearly certain, which makes sense given how frequently Trump uses it. The main uncertainty there is simply whether something unusual stops him from posting at all. 'Israel' at 72% and 'Rigged' at 66% are genuinely harder calls: they depend on what news breaks, what conflicts flare up, and what Trump chooses to respond to, all of which nobody can reliably foresee a week out.

The odds right now

• Rigged100%
• Russia100%
• Communist100%
• China100%
• Gold / Golden99%
• Israel72%
• Wall Street38%
• President Xi35%
• Football34%
• Scam30%
• Soccer28%
• Pope22%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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