What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Trump will say specific words or names out loud during the week of July 20 to July 26, 2026. There are three separate sub-questions: will he verbally say 'Trump Account', will he say 'Bibi' or 'Netanyahu', and will he say 'Barack Hussein Obama'? Yes means he speaks the term aloud in a video, speech, or interview during that window. No means he goes the whole week without saying it out loud in a qualifying recording. Each term resolves Yes if Trump says it aloud in a recorded video or spoken statement filmed between July 20 and July 26, 2026. Written posts on Truth Social or other platforms do not count, only spoken words. Videos filmed before July 20 also do not count, even if posted during the week. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 26. The key edge case: typing a name is not enough, he has to actually say it. The provided news includes major Middle East escalation: U.S. strikes on Iran, Houthi threats to shipping, and Iran striking U.S.-linked targets in Bahrain and Kuwait. This matters because active military conflict gives Trump strong reasons to speak publicly about the region, which could bring up Netanyahu naturally. There is no news directly about Trump mentioning Obama or a 'Trump Account' this week. The main question is really just whether something unusual stops Trump from speaking publicly at all this week, since all three terms are priced very high at 88 to 96 percent. Trump speaks frequently and on camera almost every week. The Netanyahu odds are especially relevant given the active Middle East conflict in the news. The real uncertainty is not whether it happens, but whether an unexpected gap in public appearances or a very quiet news week could push any term to a No.

The odds right now

• Barack Hussein Obama100%
• Trump Account96%
• Sleepy Joe94%
• Bibi / Netanyahu93%
• Gianni / Infantino91%
• Transgender75%
• Rigged67%
• Fraud60%
• Karoline / Leavitt58%
• President Xi57%
• Landslide56%
• Egg53%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.