Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether three fan-favorite actors will show up in the next big Avengers film: Tobey Maguire playing Spider-Man, Hugh Jackman playing Wolverine, and Ryan Reynolds playing Deadpool. A Yes means that actor, in that role, is confirmed in the movie. A No means they are not. Each actor has their own separate odds, so you can think about them one at a time. Each sub-market settles as Yes the moment a credible official announcement confirms that specific actor in that specific role, even if the film is later delayed or cancelled. If no announcement comes first, it settles when the finished film is released domestically. If the film is definitively cancelled and no casting was ever announced, and that cancellation happens before June 30, 2027, it resolves No. A consensus of credible reporting counts alongside official Marvel statements. None of the provided news items are relevant to this market. They cover art, politics, and culture, with no connection to Avengers: Doomsday or its casting. The kind of news that would matter here is an official Marvel announcement, a credible industry report about casting, or a production update from the studio. All three actors are priced above 85%, meaning the market treats their appearances as quite likely but not certain. The real uncertainty is whether the unexpected happens: a contract dispute, a creative direction change, or the film being restructured before release. Tobey Maguire is the slightly lower-confidence pick at 89% compared to the others, possibly because his return to Marvel has fewer public confirmations. The main honest question is not if they appear, but what could still stop it.

The odds right now

• Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man+13.5 pts (1w)89%
• Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool+5.5 pts (1w)85%
• Hugh Jackman as Wolverine85%
• Hayley Atwell as Peggy Carter+5.0 pts (1w)83%
• Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel-8.0 pts (1w)81%
• Benedict Wong as Wong-2.5 pts (1w)72%
• Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop-1.5 pts (1w)71%
• Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange-7.0 pts (1w)69%
• Brie Larson as Captain Marvel+1.5 pts (1w)68%
• Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau+3.0 pts (1w)66%
• Tom Holland as Spider-Man-5.5 pts (1w)64%
• Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine+5.5 pts (1w)64%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 18, 2026

Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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