Which companies will the US take a stake in?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the U.S. federal government will actually buy ownership shares in each of these three companies: GlobalFoundries (a chip manufacturer), D-Wave (a quantum computing company), and Rigetti (another quantum computing company). A Yes means the government becomes a part-owner, like a shareholder, not just a customer or lender. A No means it stays on the sidelines, or only provides loans and grants, which do not count as ownership. Each company resolves Yes only if the U.S. federal government completes an actual equity purchase, or signs a binding agreement to do so, before December 31, 2026. Equity means real ownership: shares, voting rights, or convertible instruments treated as ownership. Loans, grants, and subsidies do not qualify, even large ones. Ownership through a fully government-controlled sovereign wealth fund would count, but stakes held by state governments, pension funds, or private consortia would not. Rumors and policy announcements without a binding deal are not enough. None of the provided recent headlines relate to U.S. government equity stakes in GlobalFoundries, D-Wave, or Rigetti. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: official announcements of government investment deals, new legislation creating a U.S. sovereign wealth fund with equity powers, or formal agreements tied to semiconductor or quantum computing policy. The U.S. government taking direct equity stakes in private companies would be historically unusual, which is part of why these questions exist at all. The main tensions are: political will to act, legal authority to acquire equity, and whether existing tools like grants or loans get restructured into ownership. The deadline is December 2026, leaving some time but not a lot. The market prices all three companies above 69%, suggesting participants see this as more likely than not, but a binding deal has not been announced for any of them yet.

The odds right now

• GlobalFoundries-0.7 pts (1w)81%
• D-Wave+3.0 pts (1w)72%
• Rigetti+1.8 pts (1w)69%
• Unusual Machines+6.0 pts (1w)44%
• OpenAI-1.5 pts (1w)27%
• Anduril+12.0 pts (1w)25%
• Lockheed Martin-0.5 pts (1w)19%
• Anthropic+1.5 pts (1w)17%
• Boeing+3.5 pts (1w)16%
• Nvidia+4.0 pts (1w)14%
• Pfizer+1.5 pts (1w)14%
• IonQ13%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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