Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on August 31, 2026, which company's AI model will sit at the very top of a coding-skills leaderboard called LiveBench? LiveBench tests AI models on real coding tasks and publishes a public score for each one. A win for Anthropic means one of their models (like a Claude version) scores higher than every other model on that list. A win for OpenAI or Moonshot means the same for their models instead. On August 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone will check the LiveBench leaderboard, filter it to the Coding category, and read which model has the highest score. That model's parent company wins. If two models tie on score, the cheaper one (by cost per task) wins. If they still tie, company names are sorted alphabetically and the first one wins. The leaderboard website itself is the official judge, and there is no human panel making a judgment call. None of the provided news headlines directly relate to LiveBench coding rankings or to new model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Moonshot. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would actually matter is a major new model launch from any of these companies, or a significant update to an existing model, that changes how they score on coding benchmarks. A lot can change before August 2026. Each of these companies releases new models regularly, and a single strong release from OpenAI or Moonshot could flip the leaderboard. The market currently places Anthropic at 73%, reflecting today's standing, but AI model rankings have shifted quickly before. There is also a subtler issue: the leaderboard only includes models that have actually been submitted and tested, so a dominant model that was never added would not count.

The odds right now

• Anthropic73%
• OpenAI19%
• MiniMax5%
• Nvidia3%
• Thinky3%
• Alibaba3%
• Moonshot3%
• Xiaomi3%
• StepFun2%
• Microsoft2%
• DeepSeek2%
• Google2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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