Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: which AI company will have the top-ranked model for web development coding tasks on a specific public leaderboard at the end of September 2026? The leaderboard at arena.ai ranks AI models by how well they perform on web development coding challenges, judged by real user votes. A Yes for Moonshot means a Moonshot AI model sits at number one that day. A Yes for Anthropic or OpenAI means one of their models beats everyone else to that top spot. Someone will check the arena.ai Code WebDev leaderboard on September 30, 2026 at exactly 12:00 PM Eastern Time and record which company owns the model ranked first. That company wins. If two models are tied at rank one, the one listed higher on the page wins. If that is still a tie, company names are sorted alphabetically and the first one wins. If the website is down that day, the check is delayed until it comes back online. If the site shuts down permanently, the market pays out to 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover fashion, engineering earnings, and human rights topics. There is no recent news here about AI coding benchmarks or leaderboard shifts. The kind of news that would matter: a major new model release from Anthropic, OpenAI, or Moonshot AI, or any announcement about changes to how the arena.ai leaderboard works. AI model rankings move fast, and September 2026 is still over a year away. Any of these three companies could release a significantly better model before the deadline, flipping the leaderboard overnight. Moonshot AI currently leads at 56% in the market's view, but it is a less globally familiar company, so its continued lead is genuinely uncertain. New entrants not listed here could also take the top spot, which would resolve the market as 'Other'. The leaderboard itself depends on ongoing user votes, which can shift as usage patterns change.

The odds right now

• Moonshot56%
• Anthropic21%
• OpenAI16%
• Google6%
• Meta2%
• Xiaomi2%
• MiniMax2%
• Mistral1%
• SpaceXAI1%
• Tencent1%
• Poolside1%
• DeepSeek1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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