Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: which company will have the top-ranked AI model for math on a specific public leaderboard by the end of August 2026? The leaderboard, called Text Arena Math, ranks AI models based on how real users rate their math answers head-to-head. A Yes for Anthropic means their model sits at number one on that list on the check date. The market currently gives Anthropic a 60% chance, Google 31%, and Amazon 9%. The market settles based on one specific check: whoever holds the number-one rank on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on August 31, 2026, wins. The leaderboard must have style control turned off and no adjustments applied. If two models are tied in rank, the tiebreaker goes to the higher underlying score, then alphabetical order by company name. One edge case worth knowing: if the leaderboard site is down that day, the market stays open until it comes back online. One headline is relevant here: Google released three new AI models on July 22, 2026. That matters because a strong new model from Google could climb the leaderboard before the August 31 check date. The other headlines in the news feed, covering data centers, metals mining, and hotel renovations, have no connection to this market. More than a year of AI development still lies between now and the deadline, and that is the core difficulty. Any of the three companies could release a new model that jumps to the top of the leaderboard at any point before August 31. The leaderboard itself shifts constantly as new user votes come in. The market prices Anthropic as the clear favorite, but Google's recent model releases show the race is still moving. The main uncertainty is not a coin-toss between equals, but whether something displaces the current leader before the deadline.

The odds right now

• Anthropic76%
• Google20%
• OpenAI3%
• MiniMax2%
• Z.ai1%
• Bytedance1%
• Nvidia1%
• Alibaba1%
• Meituan1%
• SpaceXAI0%
• Baidu0%
• Moonshot0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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