Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which AI company will have the top-ranked math AI model on a specific public leaderboard called arena.ai on September 30, 2026. The leaderboard works like a sports ranking: real users chat with different AI models and vote on which one gives better answers to math questions, and the model that wins the most comparisons climbs to the top. A win for Anthropic means their model sits at rank 1 that day; a win for Google or OpenAI means one of theirs does instead. On September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone will check the arena.ai math leaderboard and read whichever company's model sits at rank 1. That company wins. If two models are tied in rank, the tiebreaker goes to the higher underlying score, and if that is still tied, alphabetical order of company names decides it. If the website is down that day, the check is delayed until it comes back online. If the site shuts down permanently, the market settles as 'Other.' None of the provided news headlines relate to AI, math benchmarks, or the companies in this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be major new model releases from Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI, especially any announced as strong in math reasoning, since a new model launch before September 2026 could shift the leaderboard. This is genuinely hard to predict because the AI industry moves fast and the deadline is over a year away. Any of these three companies could release a new model that jumps to the top. The market currently prices Anthropic as the front-runner at 61%, with Google at 22% and OpenAI at 13%, but those odds reflect today's snapshot, not a settled outcome. The leaderboard itself shifts constantly as new models enter and users keep voting, so the rankings in September 2026 may look nothing like they do today.

The odds right now

• Anthropic61%
• Google23%
• OpenAI13%
• Alibaba8%
• StepFun4%
• Amazon4%
• Tencent4%
• DeepSeek3%
• Moonshot3%
• Meituan3%
• Microsoft3%
• Mistral3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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