Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which movie will have the second-largest opening weekend at the domestic box office in all of 2026. Think of it like a race: every movie that opens in 2026 competes, and this market picks the silver-medal finisher by first-weekend ticket sales in the US. A Yes for Spider-Man: Brand New Day means that film finishes in exactly that second spot, not first and not third. The market settles using final 3-day opening weekend figures (Friday, Saturday, Sunday only) from The-Numbers.com for all 2026 releases. Whichever listed film lands in second place by that measure wins. One important edge case: if a movie opens over a holiday and has a 4 or 5-day weekend, only the core 3-day numbers count. Studio estimates do not count; only final confirmed figures do. Results must be available by January 31, 2027. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover topics in Indian politics and international diplomacy. To watch this market, the kinds of developments that would matter are box office results as big 2026 films open, any release date changes for Spider-Man: Brand New Day or Avengers: Doomsday, and whether any surprise film opens with unexpectedly large numbers. The main challenge is that the full 2026 movie calendar is still playing out. A film not even listed here could open huge and push every named film down a spot. The two Marvel entries, Spider-Man and Avengers: Doomsday, are competing against each other for first and second place, so their order depends on which one earns more. Release date shifts, critical reception, and competition from other films all add real unpredictability across a market that runs through the end of the year.

The odds right now

• Spider-Man: Brand New Day63%
• Avengers: Doomsday22%
• The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping9%
• Toy Story 58%
• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie4%
• Dune: Messiah3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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