Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Florida, Ohio, and Texas will each draw and use updated congressional district maps before the 2026 midterm elections. Congressional maps divide each state into geographic zones, and each zone elects one member to the U.S. House of Representatives. A 'new map' means the boundaries have been redrawn since the 2024 elections. Yes means voters in that state will cast ballots using freshly drawn district lines. No means the old map stays in place. Each state resolves Yes if it officially enacts a new congressional map after the 2024 elections and that map is actually used on Election Day in November 2026. The map must be legally in force: not blocked or thrown out by a court before the election. There is one nuance worth knowing: if a court temporarily pauses a map while it reviews a legal challenge, but the map is eventually allowed and used in 2026, it still counts as Yes. If a court completely redraws the map itself, that court-drawn map can still qualify, as long as it is the one in use. None of the news provided is relevant to congressional redistricting in Florida, Ohio, or Texas. No recent headlines touch on new maps, court rulings on district lines, or legislative action in these states. The kind of news that would matter here includes a state legislature passing a new map, a court ordering a redraw, or a legal challenge being filed or resolved in any of the three states. The market prices all three states above 97%, so the honest picture is not two evenly matched sides. The main uncertainty is the small but real chance that something unexpected blocks a new map, such as a court permanently striking it down before Election Day, a legal injunction holding firm through 2026, or a state simply not completing a new map in time. At these odds, the market is essentially treating Yes as nearly certain, and the residual doubt is about rare legal or procedural surprises, not genuine disagreement about the likely outcome.

The odds right now

• Ohio+1.1 pts (1w)98%
• Florida-0.1 pts (1w)98%
• Texas+0.3 pts (1w)97%
• North Carolina96%
• California-1.5 pts (1w)96%
• Louisiana93%
• Utah+2.0 pts (1w)91%
• Missouri91%
• Alabama+5.0 pts (1w)88%
• Georgia6%
• Wisconsin-0.1 pts (1w)6%
• Maryland-0.1 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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