White House # posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times the official White House account on X (formerly Twitter) will post in a specific seven-day window. A result of 200 or more posts means Yes for the top bracket, while 180 to 199 posts means Yes for the lower bracket. Think of it as counting every original post, share, or quote the White House publishes in that week, but not counting replies to other users. The final count comes from an automated tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com, which tallies all main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts made between July 14 at 12:00 PM ET and July 21 at 12:00 PM ET. Replies do not count, unless they appear on the main feed. Importantly, deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about five minutes of posting. If the tracker has a technical problem, the market can fall back to checking X directly. There are active news headlines about President Trump warning Iran over the killing of US troops, which could drive a burst of official White House posts responding to or amplifying that story. A major ongoing foreign-policy situation like this often leads to increased government social media activity. That said, whether this specific news actually pushed the weekly post count above 200 depends on how aggressively the account posted during this window. The main challenge is that weekly posting volume can swing based on news cycles, and this particular week includes a serious international incident involving Iran. A high-tension moment can push the count well above normal, or the account might stay measured. The market currently leans toward 200 or more at 63%, so it is not a coin toss, but a quieter few remaining days could still shift things. Small differences in how the tracker handles edge cases, like borderline main-feed replies, could also matter at the margins.

The odds right now

• 200++2.9 pts (1w)55%
• 180-199+2.7 pts (1w)40%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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