Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific named individuals will receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by the end of 2026. A pardon wipes away a federal conviction or pending charges; a commutation reduces a sentence without erasing the conviction; a reprieve is a temporary delay of punishment. A Yes result means Trump formally granted one of those forms of clemency to that person. A No means he did not, at least not within the time window. Each person resolves separately as Yes or No. Yes requires Trump to issue an official pardon, commutation, or reprieve for that individual before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The start dates differ slightly per person based on when each sub-market was created, but all share the same end date. The market settles using official US government records or a strong consensus of credible news reporting. One small note: the resolution criteria text appears in slightly different versions, with different start dates, so the exact eligible window per person may vary. None of the provided news headlines relate to Trump pardons or to Matt Gaetz, Donald Brodie, or Stefan Brodie. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any official White House announcement of clemency, or credible reporting that a pardon is being prepared for one of these individuals. Presidential pardons are entirely at Trump's discretion, announced without advance notice, and often surprising in their timing. The market prices Gaetz at 43% and the two Brodies around 34-41%, meaning none of these are near-certain outcomes. Key unknowns include whether legal or political circumstances will make a pardon feel necessary or beneficial to Trump, what ongoing legal cases look like, and whether the individuals even want or request clemency. The long window through end of 2026 adds more possible twists in either direction.

The odds right now

• Matt Gaetz-1.5 pts (1w)47%
• Donald Brodie-3.0 pts (1w)40%
• Stefan Brodie+4.5 pts (1w)35%
• Nicolas Andrew Tate29%
• Ryan Salame+7.5 pts (1w)15%
• Steve Bannon-0.1 pts (1w)14%
• Roger Stone-1.0 pts (1w)14%
• Daniel Penny-33.5 pts (1w)13%
• Keonne Rodriguez-14.0 pts (1w)13%
• Martin Shkreli+1.5 pts (1w)13%
• Elizabeth Holmes+2.0 pts (1w)11%
• Bob Menendez-4.1 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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