Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will publicly insult three specific people before the end of August 2026, with each person treated as a separate Yes or No question. The three are Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela's president), Megyn Kelly (the American TV host and journalist), and Andy Burnham (the mayor of Greater Manchester in England). A 'Yes' means Trump made a clearly insulting public remark about that person. A 'No' means he said nothing that qualifies, or only criticized their policies without personally degrading them. Each person's market settles Yes only if Trump makes a direct, on-the-record public statement that mocks or degrades that person, not just their actions. Criticizing Maduro's policies, for example, does not count. But calling him weak, corrupt, or using a derogatory nickname would count. The statement must be in Trump's own words, publicly available, and clearly directed at that individual. Leaked private comments do not count, and neither do reposts or paraphrases. A credible consensus of reporting must confirm it happened before August 31, 2026. None of the recent headlines provided relate directly to Maduro, Megyn Kelly, or Andy Burnham. The news covers Middle East diplomacy and Gulf relations. There is nothing here that signals a comment toward any of the three named individuals. The most useful thing to watch for would be any Trump press appearance, Truth Social post, or interview where these people come up, since that is where qualifying insults would most likely appear. The core difficulty is that Trump's public comments are frequent, wide-ranging, and hard to predict in direction. For Maduro at 71%, the market is fairly confident given existing tensions between Trump and Venezuela, but a qualifying insult still has to happen in Trump's own words and meet the specific criteria. Kelly and Burnham sit near 50%, meaning the market sees genuine uncertainty. Nothing forces Trump to address any of these people, and a news cycle focused elsewhere could easily mean none of them come up at all.

The odds right now

• Nicolás Maduro72%
• Tucker Carlson54%
• Kaitlan Collins53%
• Marjorie Taylor Greene51%
• Megyn Kelly47%
• Andy Burnham46%
• Jimmy Kimmel43%
• Candace Owens40%
• Mohammed bin Salman35%
• Emmanuel Macron31%
• Friedrich Merz30%
• Pam Bondi26%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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