Who will Trump publicly praise in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will say something genuinely complimentary about each named person during August 2026. There are three separate yes/no questions bundled together: one for golfer Bryson DeChambeau, one for Venezuelan official Delcy Rodriguez, and one for Elon Musk. A 'Yes' means Trump publicly praised that person at some point in August. A 'No' means he went the entire month without doing so. For each person, the market settles as Yes if any recorded Trump statement from August 1 through August 31, 2026 contains clear approval or admiration of that individual. The bar is fairly low: calling someone 'smart,' 'strong,' or 'brilliant' counts. Even a backhanded compliment qualifies, as long as it contains real praise. Polite filler like 'we had a good meeting' does not count. The judge is whatever Trump says publicly, in any format. None of the recent news provided connects clearly to these three people or to Trump making statements about them. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any reported Trump interview, rally speech, social media post, or press interaction where he mentions DeChambeau, Rodriguez, or Musk by name or clear reference. The main challenge is that Trump makes a very large number of public statements, so the question is less 'will he speak?' and more 'will August happen to include a mention?' DeChambeau and Musk are people Trump has spoken about before, which is likely why the market prices them high. Rodriguez is a more unusual name on this list. Still, a whole month is a long time, plans change, and any single quiet August with no relevant comments would flip a high-probability market to No.

The odds right now

• Bryson DeChambeau89%
• Elon Musk76%
• Byron Donalds74%
• Benjamin Netanyahu69%
• Mark Rutte68%
• Xi Jinping67%
• Delcy Rodriguez59%
• Gianni Infantino57%
• Kevin Warsh56%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy54%
• Claudia Sheinbaum49%
• Dana White46%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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