Who will Trump speak to in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether three specific people, Ursula von der Leyen, Elon Musk, and Emmanuel Macron, each have a real verbal conversation with Donald Trump at some point during July 2026. Each person is their own separate Yes or No question. A text message or written statement does not count. The interaction must be spoken, whether in person, by phone, or on a video call. The odds shown reflect how confident the market currently is that each conversation happens. Each person resolves Yes if credible media reporting confirms they had a spoken conversation with Trump during July 2026. If no clear confirmation exists by the end of August 3, 2026 (three calendar days after July 31), it resolves No, even if the call later turns out to have happened. That deadline detail is important: a conversation that is reported too late, or only confirmed by one side while the other disputes it, may still resolve No. The news provided is about Andy Burnham's cabinet picks in the UK, which has no clear connection to whether Trump speaks with von der Leyen, Musk, or Macron in July 2026. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be scheduled summits, trade negotiations involving the EU, or any public reporting about calls between Trump and these individuals. All three of these people interact with Trump on a somewhat regular basis given their roles, which is why the market prices none of them at zero. But a full month is still a specific window, and whether a qualifying conversation happens and gets confirmed publicly is genuinely unpredictable. Macron sits lowest at 34%, reflecting more uncertainty. Even for von der Leyen at 68%, the market is far from certain. Diplomatic schedules shift, meetings get cancelled, and the confirmation deadline adds a real edge case.

The odds right now

• Ursula von der Leyen-1.5 pts (1w)67%
• Elon Musk-4.0 pts (1w)40%
• Emmanuel Macron-48.0 pts (1w)33%
• Lula da Silva-8.5 pts (1w)23%
• Xi Jinping-4.0 pts (1w)11%
• Maria Corina Machado-9.5 pts (1w)5%
• Miguel Díaz-Canel-5.9 pts (1w)4%
• Masoud Pezeshkian-2.5 pts (1w)2%
• Pope Leo XIV-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• Kim Jong Un-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Reza Pahlavi-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Mojtaba Khamenei-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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