Will Codex launch a token by ___?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Codex, a crypto trading platform, will release its own official token that people can actually buy and sell, before a specific deadline. A Yes means a real, publicly tradable Codex token exists by that date. A No means it either never launched, launched too late, or only put out an announcement without an actual tradable token. To settle as Yes, Codex must officially launch a token that is live and publicly tradable before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the deadline date for whichever version of the market you are looking at: March 31, June 30, or December 31, 2027. An announcement or promise does not count. Neither do stablecoins, memecoins, or similar token types. The market checks Codex's own official channels and credible news reporting to confirm. The news provided is entirely about China's oil stockpiles and crude prices, which has no connection to Codex or a token launch. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The thing worth watching for would be any official post from Codex's account on X, or reporting from crypto news outlets, about a confirmed token launch date or live trading. The odds across all three deadlines sit right around 50%, which means the market is genuinely split and sees this as a close call. The main sources of uncertainty are typical for crypto projects: token launches get delayed, regulatory conditions shift, and teams sometimes change plans without much warning. There is also no public launch date from Codex to anchor expectations. The spread across three deadlines suggests timing is the biggest open question, not just whether it happens at all.

The odds right now

• March 31, 2027+6.0 pts (1w)53%
• June 30, 2027+1.0 pts (1w)48%
• September 30, 2027+9.0 pts (1w)44%
• December 31, 2027-7.5 pts (1w)43%
• December 31, 2026-6.5 pts (1w)38%
• September 30, 2026-3.9 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Codex officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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