Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Neuralink, the brain-computer interface company founded by Elon Musk, will reach a certain dollar value as a company before the end of 2026. There are three separate thresholds: $35 billion, $50 billion, and $60 billion. A 'Yes' on any one of them means Neuralink's estimated value crossed that line at least once before December 31, 2026. A 'No' means it never did. Think of it like asking whether a private company grew big enough to clear a certain size marker. The market settles based on a specific data source: the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market, a service that tracks valuations of private companies. If that price hits or exceeds the threshold on any single day before December 31, 2026, the market resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Neuralink goes public through an IPO before the deadline, the market will also look at its public stock price multiplied by total shares. If Neuralink gets acquired and stops existing as its own company, only valuations before that deal closes will count. The two news items provided are about Sri Lanka's politics and a Peru earthquake. Neither has any connection to Neuralink or its valuation. There is no relevant recent news to report here. The kind of developments worth watching would be new funding rounds, clinical trial results for its brain implant, or any announcement about an IPO. The core challenge is that Neuralink is a private company, so its valuation is not set by a live stock market every second. It moves in jumps, usually when new funding rounds happen or when Nasdaq Private Market updates its price. The three thresholds sit at very different odds: the market currently prices the $35 billion mark as more likely than not, while $60 billion is below 50%. The main unknowns are whether a new funding round happens before the deadline, how its clinical progress goes, and whether broader tech sentiment shifts.

The odds right now

• ↓$35B+31.5 pts (1w)65%
• ↑$50B-5.0 pts (1w)63%
• ↑$60B+27.0 pts (1w)60%
• ↓$25B+22.0 pts (1w)37%
• ↓$32.5B-7.5 pts (1w)35%
• ↑$75B-4.0 pts (1w)17%
• ↑$100B+3.0 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neuralink's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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