Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Russian forces will take control of any part of Krasnoiarske, a specific small settlement in Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, before a given deadline. A Yes means Russian troops physically enter and hold at least a piece of that village. A No means the settlement stays outside Russian control the whole time. Three separate deadlines are tracked, July 31, September 30, and December 31, 2026, each with its own odds. The market settles Yes if an official conflict-tracking map published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows any part of Krasnoiarske shaded as Russian-controlled or Russian-advanced territory, and that shading holds through at least one full daily update cycle. A one-day blip that disappears does not count. If Russia gains the area through a peace deal and physically occupies it, that also counts as Yes. But a signed agreement alone, without actual boots on the ground, does not qualify. None of the recent news provided relates directly to Krasnoiarske or military activity in that part of Donetsk Oblast. The headlines cover unrelated geopolitical and cultural topics. The kind of news that would matter here is frontline battlefield reporting from the Donetsk region, specifically any ISW updates noting Russian advances toward or into this settlement. The market is priced very high, above 90% across all three deadlines, so the main uncertainty is not whether two equal sides exist. It is simply whether something unexpected stops Russian advances in this area, such as a ceasefire, a successful Ukrainian counterattack, or a stalled front line. The gap between July and December odds is small, suggesting participants see capture as likely soon if it happens at all. The biggest open question is timing, not outcome.

The odds right now

• December 31+48.1 pts (1w)98%
• September 30+76.5 pts (1w)96%
• July 31+84.8 pts (1w)93%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnoiarske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.