Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Russian forces will fully take over the city of Kostyantynivka, a mid-sized city in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, before a set deadline. A Yes means Russia controls every part of the city. A No means Ukraine still holds some or all of it when time runs out. There are actually two deadlines being tracked here: one ending September 30, 2025, currently priced at 12%, and one ending December 31, 2026, currently priced at 47%. The market settles Yes only if the entire city boundary shows up shaded red on the ISW map, a widely used conflict-tracking tool, by 11:59 PM ET on the relevant date. The red shading must hold through at least one full daily update cycle, so a brief map error or single-day flash does not count. Notably, a peace deal that hands Russia actual physical control also counts as Yes, but a signed agreement alone, without troops on the ground, does not. Partial control of the city is not enough: it must be all of it. The provided headlines relate to the broader Russia-Ukraine war but none directly report on fighting in or around Kostyantynivka specifically. To follow this market, the most useful things to watch would be frontline reports from Donetsk Oblast, ISW daily map updates showing Russian advances toward the city, and any ceasefire or negotiation developments that could affect territorial control. The core difficulty is that urban warfare in this region has moved slowly and unpredictably. Kostyantynivka sits behind several contested front lines, and capturing an entire city, every block, is a high bar. The September deadline at 12% reflects how far away that scenario appears in the near term. The December 2026 window at 47% is essentially a coin-toss in the market's current view, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how the war evolves over the next 18 months, including the possibility of ceasefires, shifts in military momentum, or outside political pressure.

The odds right now

• December 31+7.0 pts (1w)49%
• September 30+3.5 pts (1w)14%
• July 31-0.3 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.