Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the new Spider-Man movie can out-earn the single biggest opening weekend in box office history, at least domestically. A 'Yes' means Brand New Day made more than $357 million in its first three days in theaters in the US. A 'No' means it fell short of that number, even if it still had a very strong opening. Endgame's record has stood since 2019, and beating it would be a massive milestone for any film. The market settles based on the official 3-day domestic opening weekend figures, covering July 31 through August 2, 2026, as reported by The Numbers website once those numbers are confirmed as final rather than studio estimates. If both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo have not finalized their figures by August 9, 2026, a different credible source will be used instead. The target to beat is exactly $357,115,007. A headline from August 1, 2026 directly states that Brand New Day had a 'record-shattering debut,' which strongly suggests the film broke the Endgame record. However, the market's resolution depends on confirmed final figures from The Numbers, not on news headlines. If those figures officially confirm a number above $357 million, the market would resolve Yes. The main remaining uncertainty is not about the outcome itself but about confirmation. The news headline points strongly toward a record-breaking result, and the market is priced at 38% Yes, which seems low given that headline. However, the resolution depends on finalized data from a specific source, and studio estimates sometimes differ from final audited numbers. The market may also not yet have fully updated to reflect the latest news at the time these odds were recorded.

The odds right now

• Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?47%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.