Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the Pacific Ocean will get extremely warm in a specific, measurable way during the 2026-27 winter season. El Niño is a natural climate pattern where the central Pacific Ocean heats up, shifting rainfall and weather worldwide. A 'Super' El Niño means that warming is especially intense: the sea surface temperature in the monitored region runs at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Think of it like asking whether a fever is not just present, but dangerously high. Yes means that threshold gets crossed. No means the warming stays below it, or does not happen at all. This market settles based on one specific number: the Regional Ocean Niño Index, or RONI, published by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is the official U.S. weather agency. If NOAA reports a RONI value of +2.0°C or above for any of five overlapping three-month windows between August 2026 and February 2027, the market resolves Yes immediately. If none of those windows qualify, the market waits until NOAA publishes the final winter reading, December-January-February 2026-27, before settling as No. One important detail: only the first published value for each window counts; later corrections do not change the outcome. None of the news items provided are connected to this market. They appear to be local or unrelated stories. There is no relevant El Niño or climate news to summarize here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be NOAA's regular ENSO forecasts, updated sea surface temperature readings in the tropical Pacific, and any shifts in the official seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. The market prices this at 92%, so the strong lean is toward Yes, and the main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected prevents it. El Niño forecasting more than a year out carries real error margins: ocean and atmosphere conditions can shift. The 2.0°C threshold is a specific numerical bar, and a strong but not quite extreme El Niño could fall just short. There is also the question of timing: the event needs to peak in the right windows. The biggest honest uncertainty is how reliable long-range climate forecasts are this far in advance.

The odds right now

• Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?91%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves April 1, 2027

This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.