X Games New Orleans 2026: Dave Mirra BMX Park Best Trick: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the gold medal in the Dave Mirra BMX Park Best Trick event at X Games New Orleans 2026. Best Trick is a format where riders each attempt to land the single most impressive trick they can, and the one judged best wins gold. A Yes for any rider means that specific person takes the gold. The event is named after Dave Mirra, a legendary BMX athlete, so the name is an honor, not a clue about the rules. The market settles based on whoever is officially awarded the gold medal at the podium ceremony, using X Games' own results. Whatever is declared at that ceremony is final: later disqualifications or changes do not count. If the event is cancelled or delayed past August 9, 2026, it resolves as 'Other' rather than Yes or No for anyone. One small edge case: if two riders somehow tie for gold, the winner here is whichever of their last names comes first alphabetically. None of the provided news headlines relate to this event, X Games, or BMX in any way. The kind of news that would matter here includes competition results, rider injuries before the event, or any announcement that the event schedule has changed. Ryan Williams is priced at 97%, meaning the market treats this as nearly certain, not a real contest. At that level, the honest uncertainty is narrow: it mainly comes down to whether something unexpected happens, like an injury, a surprise performance from another rider, or a judging outcome nobody anticipated. Brady Baker at 19% and Bryce Tryon at 17% reflect real but small chances. Best Trick events can always produce a shock, since one incredible run from anyone can change everything.

The odds right now

• Ryan Williams97%
• Brady Baker23%
• Mike Varga6%
• Logan Martin2%
• Daniel Sandoval1%
• Bryce Tryon1%
• Kevin Peraza1%
• Justin Dowell1%
• Marcus Christopher1%
• Other1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 X Games New Orleans for the Dave Mirra BMX Park Best Trick event at the time of the corresponding medal/podium ceremony. Subsequent disqualifications or amendments will not be considered. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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