AWS service disrupted by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

Prediction markets are trading this as a closely contested outcome, with neither resolution appearing dominant. The question turns on whether AWS publicly classifies any service interruption as 'disrupted' on its Health Dashboard before 30 June 2026. Volume is concentrated on a single binary outcome, and the market has not settled firmly in either direction.

Market structure

This is a binary market with one tracked outcome — whether AWS registers a 'disrupted' severity classification on its public Health Dashboard by 30 June 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Volume is broadly split, with neither 'Yes' nor 'No' commanding a heavy concentration. Resolution relies solely on the publicly visible AWS Health Dashboard event list, not on account-specific health events or third-party reporting.

Background

Amazon Web Services is the world's largest cloud infrastructure provider, serving a significant share of global internet traffic, enterprise applications, and government systems. AWS publishes real-time and historical service events through its Health Dashboard, which categorises incidents by severity. The 'disrupted' classification represents a defined threshold of service impact distinct from lower-severity notices. Given the scale and complexity of AWS infrastructure, service events of varying severity occur with some regularity throughout any given year, making the historical base rate of qualifying incidents relevant context for this market.

Key factors

The primary driver of resolution is whether AWS publicly logs any event at the 'disrupted' severity level between now and 30 June 2026. Factors that bear on this include the volume and complexity of AWS infrastructure changes during the period, seasonal demand patterns, and the historical frequency of publicly classified disruptions. The resolution criteria specify that a classification is locked in at the moment it is first published, regardless of later revisions downward — meaning a brief or corrected 'disrupted' label still resolves the market 'Yes'. Conversely, events that AWS classifies at lower severity levels, or that appear only in account-specific health feeds rather than the public dashboard, do not qualify. The window from now to 30 June 2026 spans multiple months, and any single qualifying event — regardless of which AWS service or region is affected — is sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution.

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