54,000
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Understand this market
This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar level at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 9, 2026. Three separate price thresholds are listed: $54,000, $56,000, and $58,000. Each is its own question. A 'Yes' means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that precise moment. A 'No' means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot: only the price at noon on that one day matters, not what happened before or after.
The market settles based on one specific data point: the closing price of the one-minute Bitcoin/USDT candle at noon Eastern Time on August 9, 2026, as recorded on the Binance exchange. If that price is strictly higher than the threshold listed, it resolves Yes. At or below the threshold means No. Only Binance's own BTC/USDT price counts here. Prices from other exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken are not used, even if they differ slightly at that moment.
One relevant headline from early August 2026 reports that roughly $86 million worth of Bitcoin was stolen from Coldcard hardware wallets, and the company halted shipments. Security incidents like this can shake confidence in crypto broadly and sometimes cause short-term price swings. There is also a report about uncertainty around US crypto legislation. None of these headlines give a clear directional signal, and no price data is provided, so it is hard to say where Bitcoin currently stands relative to these thresholds.
Bitcoin is famously volatile, and a lot can change between now and August 9, 2026. That said, the market currently prices the $54,000 threshold at 99% and $58,000 at 95%, meaning participants collectively consider these outcomes very likely based on where Bitcoin trades today. The main uncertainty at these odds is not a close call but simply whether something unexpected, like a major market crash, a regulatory shock, or an exchange failure, could push the price below these levels. The lower the threshold, the less likely that scenario needs to be.
Order Book
54,000
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
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54,000
99%