← Markets
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Resolves Nov 1, 2026·$422 24h vol·economy
$422 total volume

Below 4.95%

80%+29.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Below 4.95%
Below 4.92%
Below 4.89%
Below 4.86%
Below 4.65%
Below 4.83%
Below 4.80%
Below 4.75%
Below 4.70%

Order Book

Below 4.95%

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢413$409
98.0¢250$245
97.0¢13$12
90.0¢21$19
84.0¢20$17
83.0¢248$206
no trades yet
7.0¢ spread
76.0¢80$61
3.0¢13$0
2.0¢244$5
1.0¢413$4
$70 bids$908 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Below 4.95%

80%