How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?

Resolution Criteria

Bernie Sanders has endorsed Abdul El-Sayed, Cori Bush, William Lawrence, and Donavan McKinney in contested Senate and Congressional primary races that are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will still be considered to have won the primary if no primary election is held and the candidate receives the relevant party nomination. This market will only consider the four candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant. The candidates and races are: Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary; Cori Bush in the MO-01 Democratic House Primary; William Lawrence in the MI-07 Democratic House Primary; and Donavan McKinney in the MI-13 Democratic House Primary. If, for any listed race, no nominee has been formally determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the listed candidate in that race will be deemed not to have won. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of the relevant state election authorities responsible for reporting the results of these primary elections; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.