MN-07 House Election Winner
Republican Party
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Understand this market
This market asks a simple question: which party will win the congressional seat for Minnesota's 7th district in the 2026 midterm elections? A Yes for Republicans means their candidate wins the seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Yes for Democrats means their candidate wins it instead. MN-07 is a large, rural district in western Minnesota, and it has leaned heavily Republican in recent election cycles.
The market settles based on who actually wins the MN-07 House race on November 3, 2026. The winner is determined by credible news reporting, and if there is any dispute, the Federal Election Commission's official results are the final word. One edge case worth noting: if a candidate runs without a clear party label, the market will assign them to whichever party they most recently said they intended to caucus with.
The provided news headlines do not relate directly to MN-07. The headlines mention a Democratic Senate nomination in Maine and a general piece about the midterm landscape. None of them are about this specific district or its candidates. To follow this market, the most useful developments to watch for would be candidate announcements, local polling, and any significant shifts in the broader political environment heading into November 2026.
The market prices this heavily toward Republicans at 94%, so the honest picture is not a close contest. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts a strongly Republican-leaning district, such as an unusually strong Democratic candidate, a major national wave, or a late-breaking local event. At this price, the market is not treating this as a genuine toss-up. The main open question is whether the unlikely happens, not whether both outcomes are equally plausible.
Order Book
Republican Party
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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Republican Party
94%