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Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

Resolves Dec 1, 2026·$1.7k 24h vol·economy
$1.7k total volume

November 30

68%+7.5%
OutcomeYesNo
November 30
October 31

Order Book

November 30

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢967$957
98.0¢300$294
96.0¢50$48
95.0¢6$6
90.0¢21$19
75.0¢60$45
66.0¢last trade
15.0¢ spread
60.0¢30$18
59.0¢13$8
57.0¢20$11
56.0¢20$11
53.0¢80$42
51.0¢20$10
50.0¢639$320
47.0¢100$47
$468 bids$1.4k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required. For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify. Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

November 30

67%