Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 31
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Understand this market
This market asks whether Donald Trump will personally meet, face to face, with Mojtaba Khamenei before the end of 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and is widely seen as a likely future Supreme Leader himself. A Yes means Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei actually spoke, shook hands, or directly interacted in person. A No means that meeting never happened, even if diplomacy between the US and Iran was active through other channels or other people.
The market settles Yes only if Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei have a real, direct, in-person interaction confirmed by credible news reporting before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. A handshake, a conversation, or any clear personal exchange qualifies. Simply being in the same building or room without interacting does not count. If no such meeting is reported by credible sources before the deadline, it resolves No.
One headline from July 25, 2026 notes that Trump said talks with Iran are underway amid military strikes, which suggests some level of US-Iran diplomatic contact is happening. However, none of the provided headlines mention Mojtaba Khamenei directly or indicate any plan for a personal meeting between him and Trump. Developments worth watching would be any reports of direct high-level US-Iran summits or formal negotiations involving Khamenei's son specifically.
The market prices this at around 5%, reflecting that this scenario is considered very unlikely but not impossible. The genuine uncertainty is small: a direct Trump meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei would require a dramatic breakthrough in US-Iran relations, a shift in Iranian leadership's public posture, and a level of diplomatic trust that does not currently exist. The main unpredictable force is geopolitics, which can move fast and surprisingly. But the honest read is that most of the uncertainty here is about whether something truly unexpected happens, not a close call between two plausible outcomes.
Order Book
December 31
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both specified individuals are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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December 31
5%